Licensee’s Consumption Estimates

4.9 Licensee’s Consumption Estimates

The licensee’s estimate for the year 2005-06 is based on ALF and further adjusted on higher side. A comparison of the DHBVNL’s actual consumption during the year 2003-04 vis-à-vis the actual consumption during the year FY 2004-05 is shown in the table 4.24:

Table 4.24 - Comparison of the DHBVNL’s actual consumption (MU) during the year 2003-04 vis-à-vis the actual consumption (MU) during the year 2004-05

	Actual Consumption FY 2003-04	Actual Consumption FY 2004-05	% growth
Domestic	1198.99	1338.73	11.65
Non Domestic	338.28	378.56	11.91
HT Industry	1462.26	1598.71	9.33
LT Industry	423.87	455.33	7.42
Agriculture metered	629.89	737.93	17.15
Agriculture unmetered	1682.24	1621.68	-3.60
MITC	0.00	0.00
Lift Irrigation	134.95	113.96	-15.56
Railway Traction	104.13	106.18	1.96
Bulk Supply	139.07	194.71	40.00
Street lighting	21.16	21.62	2.20
PWW	166.72	178.96	7.34
Total	6301.57	6746.38	7.06

A comparison of the DHBVNL’s actual consumption during the year 2004-05 vis-à-vis the estimate for FY 2005-06 is shown in the table:

Table 4.25 - Comparison of the DHBVNL’s actual consumption (MU) during the year 2004-05 vis-à-vis the estimate for FY 2005-06

	Actual Consumption FY 2004-05	DHBVNL Estimate FY 2005-06	% Difference
Domestic	1338.73	1592.96	19.0
Non Domestic	378.56	477.2	26.1
HT Industry	1598.71	1727.73	8.1
LT Industry	455.33	507.59	11.5
Agriculture metered	737.93	956.42	29.6
Agriculture unmetered	1621.68	1384.41	-14.6
MITC	0.00	0.0	0.0
Lift Irrigation	113.96	117.55	3.2
Railway Traction	106.18	101.65	-4.3
Bulk Supply	194.71	246.34	26.5
Street lighting	21.62	24.29	12.3
PWW	178.96	209.76	17.2
Total	6746.38	7345.9	8.9

From the above table, it is noticed that the forecast in most of the consumer categories is on much higher side and does not conform to actual past trend. Hence, the same may not be achieved in the power availability-driven-scenario prevailing during 2005-06.